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Reflections on the impact of the US pulling out of the Iran deal

Video Credit Radio Free Europe.

UNHS is disappointed that the United States has chosen to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA), commonly referred to as the Iran Deal. As fervent supporters of the nuclear disarmament movement and the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, we view this announcement as an unfortunate regress from building a safer world for all. While the loss of the United States’s cooperation in this deal is damaging, UNHS believes that it is not fatal. The rest of the international community, especially those of us in Europe, must compensate for this loss and work with Iran to continue the enforcement of this deal.

UN House SCISA expert Lukasz Kulesa offered this statement:

“The Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, has been a rare example of responding to a major nuclear non-proliferation crisis with a negotiated solution which provided benefits for all sides involved. International community convinced Iran to limit its nuclear program and thus eliminated the possibility of a quick Iranian “breakout” to build nuclear weapons, while Iran achieved sanctions relief. Most importantly, the deal reinforced the central importance of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the international system of nuclear safeguards and verification.

Collapse of the deal would have direct and indirect effects. Most directly, Iran can - at best - “just” limit the access of international inspectors, stop applying Additional Protocol on nuclear safeguards and revive its centrifuge program. At worst, Iran can quit the NPT. That would already be a serious stress test for the non-proliferation regime.

Indirect effect can be even worse. A number of countries could conclude that international rules, agreements and regimes don’t protect them in an unpredictable world, and they need additional insurance, namely advanced “peaceful” nuclear programs or the nuclear weapons themselves.”

-Łukasz Kulesa, Research Director, European Leadership Network

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